gmg733
788 posts
msg #136250
- Ignore gmg733 |
6/8/2017 9:02:17 AM
Futures are my biggest in regards to return on capital. But the notional I'm controlling is the biggest too so that makes sense. Options trades have been good to me and do work. It would work MUCH better if we had higher volatility. So in this point and time, futures are better performing but it is hard to do apples to apples comparison with vol being so low.
Here is a good story. A buddy of mine every time he sees me brags about his AMZN position. I usually laugh and he always asks me why I laugh. I finally explained to him his risk is so high on the position and his return while great is not great when there are better vehicles out there. Here is my point, he is risking 75k and is up 25k (assuming in at 750 and 1000 right now on AMZN for 100 shares). I'm up almost 2x on a typical return on capital (measured by margin). Simply if I'm normally in at 25k of buying power I'm up almost 25k and obviously a more efficient means. His counter argument is AMZN will never go down. We'll see how that works out. :)
What I think are better plays... according to my filters PNRA (bought out), TSLA and REGN all outperforming AMZN and have been for several months now. I think the best trade once we get some correction will be XIV or SVXY (pick your poison).
Now, lets get a counter trend rally in /CL and make some money. I just read an article that all the banks cut crude oil price forecast for this year, so that means a rally. :) I don't look at macros when trading, but with all the saber rattling in the middle east I have a hard time believing oil is going another 10 percent lower.
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karennma
8,057 posts
msg #136251
- Ignore karennma |
6/8/2017 9:30:55 AM
@ gmg733.
Re: " Here is my point, he is risking 75k and is up 25k (assuming in at 750 and 1000 right now on AMZN for 100 shares). I'm up almost 2x on a typical return on capital (measured by margin). Simply if I'm normally in at 25k of buying power I'm up almost 25k and obviously a more efficient means. His counter argument is AMZN will never go down. We'll see how that works out. :) "
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Most peeps who buy & hold stocks don't trade futures, much less understand futures.
Of course, futures will give you a higher return because of the leverage. There's no doubt, IF YOU'RE POSITION/DIRECTION IS CORRECT, you'll make a lot of money. Therein lies the problem with trading anything -- futures, stocks or options.
Remember the Greek aphorism, "Know Thyself"?
It took me a long time to realize that trading success for me personally is all about knowing myself.
ANYWAY, regarding your friend's comment ... "His counter argument is AMZN will never go down."
SMH ... That's sad.
Poor guy has probably never seen a flash crash. Hopefully, he doesn't have a margin account.
IMHO, he needs to put in a stop.
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karennma
8,057 posts
msg #136252
- Ignore karennma |
6/8/2017 10:09:00 AM
And of course, a stop won't help you if the flash crash occurs during Pre-market or afterhours ....
You're just screwed.
And for that reason, I still keep my positions small.
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karennma
8,057 posts
msg #136253
- Ignore karennma |
6/8/2017 11:32:44 AM
pthomas215,
NVDA
Looks like it's going straight to $200.
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karennma
8,057 posts
msg #136254
- Ignore karennma |
6/8/2017 11:44:55 AM
NVDA
Since it ran so hard this week, I'm looking for a retrace next week.
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #136255
- Ignore pthomas215 |
6/8/2017 11:57:48 AM
karen, it is because of ""A I"". and i am not talking about allen iverson.
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karennma
8,057 posts
msg #136256
- Ignore karennma |
6/8/2017 12:30:00 PM
NVDA
SOLD all @157.12
Damn chart has run OFF my monitor.
Reminds me of AMBA -- and that was a nightmare!
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karennma
8,057 posts
msg #136257
- Ignore karennma |
6/8/2017 12:33:26 PM
pthomas215
727 posts
msg #136255
- Ignore pthomas215 6/8/2017 11:57:48 AM
karen, it is because of ""A I"". and i am not talking about allen iverson.
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I don't know what you're talking about.
Just glad I'm out.
This kind of $#*+ makes me feel uncomfortable.
KNOW THEYSELF!
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karennma
8,057 posts
msg #136258
- Ignore karennma |
6/8/2017 12:40:12 PM
Typo:
Know Thyself!
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #136259
- Ignore gmg733 |
6/8/2017 1:16:38 PM
.... I still keep my positions small.
A key to trading success that gets way overlooked. Keep it small, trade often and lots of diverse stuff if you wanna be a trader like that. Live to trade another day.
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