gmg733
788 posts
msg #138815
- Ignore gmg733
modified |
10/24/2017 11:26:17 AM
Sold a strangle in CAT today to capture some post earnings IV. That trade has worked out for me pretty good this year.
They won't let the market go down. :)
Seasonality strength starts Oct 28th for the market. More of the same?
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davesaint86
726 posts
msg #138816
- Ignore davesaint86 |
10/24/2017 11:48:55 AM
Johnpaulca - I'm in Boeing (BA). Before the open tomorrow they are supposed to announce earnings. Rumor is that they are to surprise to the upside. On July 24th BA has better than expected earnings and BA closed up moved up over three days by 14%. Do you suggest dumping tomorrow if the same thing happens?
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #138817
- Ignore johnpaulca |
10/24/2017 12:03:34 PM
"They won't let the market go down. :) "
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Two stocks keeping the DOW afloat today....3M and CAT, this index is so stupid.
Good trade with the CAT
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #138821
- Ignore johnpaulca |
10/24/2017 12:22:11 PM
davesaint86
212 posts
msg #138816
- Ignore davesaint86 10/24/2017 11:48:55 AM
Johnpaulca - I'm in Boeing (BA). Before the open tomorrow they are supposed to announce earnings. Rumor is that they are to surprise to the upside. On July 24th BA has better than expected earnings and BA closed up moved up over three days by 14%. Do you suggest dumping tomorrow if the same thing happens?
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All the analyst covering this stock has raised the price target, I believe it's worth at least $300 + the new 747 are doing well. Depending on your timeframe this is an excellent stock to own for the long haul. For trading I would dump it before earnings since you never know which way it goes....glty
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #138822
- Ignore johnpaulca |
10/24/2017 12:40:00 PM
XIV($109.61)....BB40 crossing below BB125 on 30-min, it's been awhile since this happened. $110.57 will be resis on 2-hr failure here and we see $106
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #138826
- Ignore gmg733 |
10/24/2017 3:47:18 PM
Johnpaulca - I'm in Boeing (BA). Before the open tomorrow they are supposed to announce earnings. Rumor is that they are to surprise to the upside. On July 24th BA has better than expected earnings and BA closed up moved up over three days by 14%. Do you suggest dumping tomorrow if the same thing happens?
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I'm no JohnpaulCA and didn't ask me so sorry for being rude, but ask yourself what your exit plan is. Only you know when to get in and get out. You should have an exit plan in mind before getting into any trade.
Maybe this will help. Have you ever seen a stock miss earnings and go up? Have you ever seen a stock smash earnings and go down? The answer to both is nobody knows anything.
The IV on BA this earnings cycle is higher than the last 3. What does that tell you? Nothing. :) But I might sell some options at the open and capture from IV contraction.
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #138827
- Ignore johnpaulca |
10/24/2017 3:51:35 PM
Sound advice Greg.
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #138828
- Ignore pthomas215 |
10/24/2017 3:56:41 PM
Holding through earnings is gambling. Trading with more certainty would be to get out of your position before the call, and then see what direction it is going. Know your retracement levels and rsi levels. it is probably going to go there. i.e. AMD is gonna close around 14.23 right before the call tonight. It's gonna rest $2 either way, but we dont know what way. Either going to $12.20 or $16.20. If call is well underway and it has gone from 14.23 to 15.23, odds are you have 15.23 to 16.20 to play with. my opinion of course.
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #138829
- Ignore gmg733
modified |
10/24/2017 4:00:07 PM
MMM for BA is +/- 9.61 for Friday expiration
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mahkoh
1,065 posts
msg #138833
- Ignore mahkoh |
10/24/2017 4:37:40 PM
K came up on a filter I'm developing for stocks that consistently pay dividends in the 3 - 7 % range. In my backtest the system has a win rate of 65-70 %, an APR of 20% and a profitfactor of 17; however this is using non adjusted data, therefore excluding the dividends received. The average trade lasts 30 days.
The idea is to buy the stock and sell a call if the ex date is prior to the expiration date, otherwise sell a naked at the money put.
K reports earnings on Oct 31
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