shillllihs
6,089 posts
msg #133879
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
1/25/2017 12:35:32 PM
Looking for a XIV reversion to the Weekly Acc.B(21) mid band sometime in the next 2 weeks.
How long can this really go on. Can't be long now. If candle goes red, I think it's on.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #133880
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/25/2017 1:55:59 PM
Here's my thought - volatility is mean-reverting, but LACK of volatility is not. Or at least not at the same rate. I have been long XIV since 11/22 (in at $42ish) and added to my positions at $50. Still holding back a large majority of my capital, which in retrospect was stupid.
I will stay pat until the contango drops below 5%, and exit then. Will re-enter when contango is above 5% and the VXV contango is lower than the VIX contango (confirmation signal). Good luck.
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shillllihs
6,089 posts
msg #133881
- Ignore shillllihs |
1/25/2017 3:49:56 PM
How do you find the Vxv level at Vix central. Is that the 3rd month? What's the level now?
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #133882
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/25/2017 5:54:43 PM
It's at the bottom of the first page, titled "Month 7 to 4 Contango" - currently at 11.24% with the VIX contango at 10.67%. The fact that the 7-4 contango level is higher right now is (to me) a cautionary signal but not enough to close out my XIV trade. If the VIX contango gets below 5% that is a red flag for me.
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shillllihs
6,089 posts
msg #133883
- Ignore shillllihs |
1/25/2017 6:21:21 PM
Sold Ugaz, Uso, Uco, hold a small amount of Tvix. Thinking of shorting Xiv.
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T_Charp13
35 posts
msg #133889
- Ignore T_Charp13 |
1/26/2017 10:27:03 AM
So your position is to buy TVIX when the first number in the "month 7 to 4 contango" is below 5%?
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #133892
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/26/2017 11:59:03 AM
I would only buy TVIX if the VIX were in backwardation (contango less than 0%). Otherwise I usually short it, which has been a very reliable trade.
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T_Charp13
35 posts
msg #133893
- Ignore T_Charp13 |
1/26/2017 12:06:32 PM
Short vix when contango is below 5% and buy TVIX when in backwardation, got it. What is your preference of TVIX over UVXY?
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shillllihs
6,089 posts
msg #133894
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
1/26/2017 1:19:25 PM
Go long Vix under zero, not short.
This goes hand in hand with what I've been saying, that shorting Vix is very reliable and going long Vix is a gamble. One thing I will say is, if Xiv starts to drop, it will almost 100% hit Weekly Acceleration Band(21) midline, and in my o. reverse back up. If not, look for a bear market, though I think won't happen for 3-5 years.
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T_Charp13
35 posts
msg #133896
- Ignore T_Charp13 |
1/26/2017 1:57:07 PM
You are right, meant to type to short XIV and not VIX
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