Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #134258
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
2/13/2017 12:23:23 PM
I'm playing the KEVIN DIVERGENCE on YINN @ 20.06
You'll be getting in at a better price than I did. Good luck.
... unless by "DIVERGENCE" you plan to trade this one long, in which case you are screwed.
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kibo
14 posts
msg #134259
- Ignore kibo |
2/13/2017 12:57:18 PM
I made a mistake and shorted YINN also too soon. I guess it will hit 20.5 or 20.6 before any pull back.
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shillllihs
6,088 posts
msg #134260
- Ignore shillllihs |
2/13/2017 1:09:07 PM
No I shorted YINN but I'd rather have shorted an inverse ETF.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #134265
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
2/13/2017 1:56:49 PM
XIV - loving it.
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shillllihs
6,088 posts
msg #134282
- Ignore shillllihs |
2/14/2017 12:07:56 PM
SHORT TVIX for a week now. Just 6k.
That'll be a sure 3k...
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #134283
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
2/14/2017 12:36:17 PM
Agreed. If you are trying to time options expiration, I would look at what the NEW contango and roll yield will be as of tomorrow (new contango level of 13.4%, new roll yield at about 15.3%). Still argues to hold XIV or short TVIX.
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shillllihs
6,088 posts
msg #134285
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
2/14/2017 1:06:49 PM
Ok? How do derive roll yield?
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shillllihs
6,088 posts
msg #134287
- Ignore shillllihs |
2/14/2017 1:24:07 PM
Think better to be short Tvix than long Xiv with price above upper weekly ACC(21)).
Any gains you made will be wiped out in moments when price goes to midline. At least short you have decay.
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shillllihs
6,088 posts
msg #134288
- Ignore shillllihs |
2/14/2017 1:26:04 PM
When shorting Tvix, your returns will be similar to holding high yield bonds since you will want to be careful with how much you are holding.
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shillllihs
6,088 posts
msg #134289
- Ignore shillllihs |
2/14/2017 1:31:16 PM
1/31/2017 2:04:47 PM
Truth is there are several things I look at, as confirmatory signals other than the primary measure of contango:
1. VXV/VIX ratio: This should be above 1.1 for a green light, between 1.1 and 1.0 for a caution signal, and below 1 is a red light. Currently at 1.17 (green).
2. VIX/VXST ratio: This should be above 1.05 for a green light, between 1.05 and 1.0 for a caution signal, and below 1 is a red light. Currently at 0.99 (red).
3. Roll Yield: This should be above 5% for a green light, between 5% and 0% for a caution signal, and below 0% is a red light. Currently at 3.64% (yellow).
4. VIX contango - VXV contango: This should be above 0 (and VIX contango above 0%) for a green light, between below 0 (and VIX contango above 0%) for a caution signal, and below 0 (and VIX contango below 0) is a red light. Currently at -0.3% but VIX contango is still at 10.15% (yellow).
Note that all of these were green yesterday.
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Do you want to define what you're looking at for each
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