shillllihs
6,090 posts
msg #133202
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
12/13/2016 3:30:22 PM
Today's Tip.
Last bear market, other than being completely out of the market, only one play worked.
From Jan 2008 to March 2009 everything failed, even bonds failed. The only ETF play that would
have made money would have been shorting Xiv. So if you have the guts to stay short for 2 years, that's the play, otherwise stay out.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #133203
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
12/13/2016 3:44:28 PM
You also would have made money being long SDS or (even better) long DTO (which went from 22 at it's inception date in July 2008 to over 250 by February 2009). In retrospect that should have been an easy one to see coming, when oil was at $147/barrel and the stock market was down 20+% from its 2007 high.
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shillllihs
6,090 posts
msg #133208
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/13/2016 6:56:47 PM
Don't think inverse longs work well in bear markets due to the fact that longer range indicators will get you in late and exit too late. This is my experience with my bear indicator. I think this is so but I'll check again.
Bear market starts when using SH., monthly ma.2 closes above ma.21 in my book.
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shillllihs
6,090 posts
msg #133217
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/14/2016 10:04:37 AM
Xiv 45.38. 1/3rd position. Thinking of always holding a 3rd position and buying around it. Pullbacks
on Xiv in bull markets can be 50% which would bring it to 23 but rebounds are quick. So I would buy 2/3rds at bottom with a cost average of 30. Prob. Bounces back to 45, making 50% several weeks after the dive. This is all in a perfect world.
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #133219
- Ignore pthomas215 |
12/14/2016 11:12:57 AM
shillihs, what is your opinion on the best play today if the market goes south at 2:30 eastern because it is confirmed that there will be a rate hike?
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shillllihs
6,090 posts
msg #133221
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/14/2016 12:46:15 PM
Not sure. I'm not good with short term plays. I would think tivx or just sit it out.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #133222
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
12/14/2016 1:08:19 PM
Weird - ^VIX is up 4.25% but TVIX is down 2.5%. Go figure. The movement of these ETFs seems more in line with contango than with tracking the Index.
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #133224
- Ignore pthomas215 |
12/14/2016 1:33:43 PM
Absolutely right Kevin. And absolutely why I am confused how to play this news if I dont stay out.
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #133225
- Ignore johnpaulca |
12/14/2016 1:50:36 PM
TVIX tracks the VIX Futures market and not the spot VIX Index itself, that there is often contango in the futures market which has negative effects on TVIX returns over time.
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shillllihs
6,090 posts
msg #133226
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/14/2016 2:04:36 PM
In backwardation, does everything reverse? Will Xiv suffer and Tvix do well when Vix is down?
My recommendation is take a 33% position in Xiv and let it run. If it gets hammered, add 67%
Rinse and repeat always holding 33% until confirmed bear.
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